The Future of Work in America
Charlie McGill
Mr. Roddy
For a little over a decade, jobs have been relocating from rural America to urban areas. This is reflective of the loss of industrial work, along with a general population growth in urban America. Although every region lost jobs during the great recession, almost exclusively urban areas have been able to recover and net large employment gains. Since 2007, jobs in the urban core, rising cities, and cities known as silver cities (cities with large retirement populations) have grown by 10%, while rural areas have experienced a job growth of less than 1%, leaving these areas still decimated from the great recession. Although this is concerning, it is not the scariest data. That would be on domestic population movement.
There is a lot to decipher in this graph, as it is not the easiest to understand. However, it’s terrifying. Here’s the information: although rural America is leaving many unemployed, its residents are refusing to move to more prosperous areas; in 1990, 6.1% of Americans moved between states and counties, while by 2017 that number has dropped to 3.6. This does not bode well for the future, when it is very likely that entire industries will lose massive amounts of jobs. Although a huge amount of new jobs will be created as well, what this data tells us is that Americans won’t be moving to those jobs. It gets even scarier when we approach this from a geopolitical perspective. In America, with its lack of internal barriers and strong infrastructure, people can move in between states with relative ease. Not all, but most workers who won’t be able to afford a plane ticket after paying for moving expenses and the costs associated with uprooting your life should be able to find a way to move to new jobs. However, other countries like China, where much of rural life is separated geographically from urban job zones, will not have this same freedom of movement. Everyone knows that rural life and production work across the world will likely suffer, however, it is more important to know that most people won’t leave their dying rural towns. This has the potential to be a crisis around the world.
The third and final graph showcases the inequality between the workers and industries that will be affected by the coming age of automation. What I mean by this is that the rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer, and it will be even harder to get a job without a college education. McKinsey predicts that the four industries most affected by automation will be office support, production work, mechanical repair and installation, and building. Three of these industries have more than 90% of their workers without a college degree, and the final industry, office support, has 61-90% of their workers without a college degree. When millions of these workers eventually lose their jobs, they will not have a college degree to fall back on to secure any type of job. They will most likely go into trade work, an area unaffected by automation. However, most people who lose their jobs will be a part of mass layoffs, and they will likely share their town or city with many other new unemployed people. Only so many people can go into trade work, and other industries that don’t require a public education will become very competitive to get into. So not only will most people not have a job waiting for them when they’re laid off, but the jobs that are around will become extremely competitive. Couple this with the fact that Americans aren’t moving towards areas of growth, and we have an unemployment crisis.
Things don’t look great for Americans in the coming age. However, that does not mean that we can’t turn the tables on our fate. With some cultural changes regarding moving, more safety nets to keep the unemployed on their feet until they find new jobs, and more public awareness of the layoffs automation will usher in, we can have a country not only prepared to take on this new era, but thrive during it.
Mr. Roddy
Global Politics
11/23/2019
As automation continues to take over industries throughout the world, many economists, politicians, and laypersons alike are questioning what the future of work will look like. The health of local, state, and federal economies will all depend on their ability to adapt to the coming age. Much research has already been done on what automation will do to the national economy; after all, that’s where the majority of economic focus lies. However, it is likely that automation will affect local economies even more, in the same way that the departure of industrial work affected the rust belt. The rust belt’s local economies have been shattered, and it is likely that other regions will face the same job losses as their work gets phased out by innovation or moved to other areas of America. However, research like that done by McKinsey gives these regions time to prepare for hardships, find new work, or relocate to booming urban areas. Let’s dive into the data, and take a peek at the coming age of automation.
11/23/2019
The Future of Work
As automation continues to take over industries throughout the world, many economists, politicians, and laypersons alike are questioning what the future of work will look like. The health of local, state, and federal economies will all depend on their ability to adapt to the coming age. Much research has already been done on what automation will do to the national economy; after all, that’s where the majority of economic focus lies. However, it is likely that automation will affect local economies even more, in the same way that the departure of industrial work affected the rust belt. The rust belt’s local economies have been shattered, and it is likely that other regions will face the same job losses as their work gets phased out by innovation or moved to other areas of America. However, research like that done by McKinsey gives these regions time to prepare for hardships, find new work, or relocate to booming urban areas. Let’s dive into the data, and take a peek at the coming age of automation.
For a little over a decade, jobs have been relocating from rural America to urban areas. This is reflective of the loss of industrial work, along with a general population growth in urban America. Although every region lost jobs during the great recession, almost exclusively urban areas have been able to recover and net large employment gains. Since 2007, jobs in the urban core, rising cities, and cities known as silver cities (cities with large retirement populations) have grown by 10%, while rural areas have experienced a job growth of less than 1%, leaving these areas still decimated from the great recession. Although this is concerning, it is not the scariest data. That would be on domestic population movement.
There is a lot to decipher in this graph, as it is not the easiest to understand. However, it’s terrifying. Here’s the information: although rural America is leaving many unemployed, its residents are refusing to move to more prosperous areas; in 1990, 6.1% of Americans moved between states and counties, while by 2017 that number has dropped to 3.6. This does not bode well for the future, when it is very likely that entire industries will lose massive amounts of jobs. Although a huge amount of new jobs will be created as well, what this data tells us is that Americans won’t be moving to those jobs. It gets even scarier when we approach this from a geopolitical perspective. In America, with its lack of internal barriers and strong infrastructure, people can move in between states with relative ease. Not all, but most workers who won’t be able to afford a plane ticket after paying for moving expenses and the costs associated with uprooting your life should be able to find a way to move to new jobs. However, other countries like China, where much of rural life is separated geographically from urban job zones, will not have this same freedom of movement. Everyone knows that rural life and production work across the world will likely suffer, however, it is more important to know that most people won’t leave their dying rural towns. This has the potential to be a crisis around the world.
The third and final graph showcases the inequality between the workers and industries that will be affected by the coming age of automation. What I mean by this is that the rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer, and it will be even harder to get a job without a college education. McKinsey predicts that the four industries most affected by automation will be office support, production work, mechanical repair and installation, and building. Three of these industries have more than 90% of their workers without a college degree, and the final industry, office support, has 61-90% of their workers without a college degree. When millions of these workers eventually lose their jobs, they will not have a college degree to fall back on to secure any type of job. They will most likely go into trade work, an area unaffected by automation. However, most people who lose their jobs will be a part of mass layoffs, and they will likely share their town or city with many other new unemployed people. Only so many people can go into trade work, and other industries that don’t require a public education will become very competitive to get into. So not only will most people not have a job waiting for them when they’re laid off, but the jobs that are around will become extremely competitive. Couple this with the fact that Americans aren’t moving towards areas of growth, and we have an unemployment crisis.
Things don’t look great for Americans in the coming age. However, that does not mean that we can’t turn the tables on our fate. With some cultural changes regarding moving, more safety nets to keep the unemployed on their feet until they find new jobs, and more public awareness of the layoffs automation will usher in, we can have a country not only prepared to take on this new era, but thrive during it.
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